Forex trading describes series of patterns that fits into context

Hi, Readers,

Great weekend and great run gold and other commodities as BOJ hold further easing and no clues of adding more stimulus package to recent ongoing package.
Here I have put an chart of recent activity in the pair gbp/usd and the reason why I went short and long and has long term targets, but I would built up new plan and strategies when the next weekend start and that is what we always need to do at the start of new week.

How we built a trading system based on context

We often look for the help of certain trading strategies and develop a system which really ends up with relying on candles e.g pin bar rejection at pinbar, bullish engulfing pattern at 61.8% Fibonacci which still does not confirm how does that describes that it will have a follow through and you look to wait for large stops below the pin bar or Engulfing pattern which does not really help anyways.

Pound Dollar Technical analysis Could Target 1.4900

As I mentioned in my last post regarding bullish pattern occur in Pound Dollar pair and immediate action was seen and even before Ahead of FOMC Report price has managed to hold on to gains and did no liquidate after testing the highs of 1.4610-50 area, and this could be a good sign for bulls to attack more as I have spotted an Inverse Head & shoulder price Action pattern which need validation.

History of patterns In Forex

Every pattern in trading has few strong and valid points and as well as weak points but I always back my decision and give this setup 7 out 10 as Price strong monthly consolidation pattern is about to break, and ahead of key event and if Somehow we see some bullish pattern continuation in next couple of sessions, then I am expecting this strong move in Sterling.

Fibonacci Trendline and Forex patterns don't work

Even though I put lot of efforts in learning and being not a very big fan of those fibonacci, trendlines and Chart reversal patterns like Head & Shoulder pattern, but If we see logic in those reversal patterns then there is no harm is lowering the risk at test and risk 2% or max 3% to make 10-15% of the account and that really what all expect when we first look for a trade in our favor.

The reason why I am quite subdued on this setup (not because of Head & Shoulder Pattern),because we all expect new cash flows in the days to come as we expect a big key events from both Federation and BOE.

Time For Sterling bulls to breach the resistance

This really can put up lot of pressure on sterling which has Under-perform in last few months. even though this pair has the reputation of Safe-heaven and also has performed well as safe heaven currency as We all know UK is strong enough economy to cope with recession and any global crisis such as Crude and Global Slowdown.
Pound got a hit due to reduction in global crude prices and it has been the prime reason for weakening of Single Currency Pair, because U.K rely on Brent crude to supply in Asian countries and hence decline in currency pressure was seen during that period but as Oil has recover strongly we can see the same happening to the Pound as well.

Weekly and Intraday Technicals of Euo,Pound and Franc

Sterling breakout seems smart money pushing new Cash flows in to the pair and looking for more strength towards the opening of U.S session. Stops seen around 1.4587 area . So, its quite a distance away from here. Looking for sell stops orders around 1.4430 now.

More Currencies Updates would be posted here soon

**Euro dollar and Dollar Franc Update would soon be posted on this page. Stay tuned for more updates.

Usd/chf decision engulf looking for next at 0.9900

This is a must watch setup as We have strong respect of demand and supply levels in this Chart, While trading Currencies One must be aware of Price Action Reaction at levels and how price behaves when they take over upcoming or recent supply and demand with easy .
Drop base rally is good structure overall which shows strengths of bulls but alone it does not stands any chance of valid setups but If you combine it with overall picture and structure, then you probably will get idea that some institution or US Bank is looking for strong Dollar ahead of FOMC meet this coming Wednesday.

Trading Charts does require some logical knowledge, because we all have basic technical knowledge and trendlines, patterns, fibos are very well known to each and everybody of us, but do they help us find good probability or spot smart money move in strong manner and my answer is no and that is why Novice trader keep falling in the prophecy and look for proven strategy and fall into myths of Technical Trading.
Soon I will put more insights on thought of current setup and Euro dollar Setup as well as both Franc and Euro has negative correlation with U.S dollar.

Setup closed around 1.4585
It was clinch situation yesterday when I took the trade around 1.4484 and it steep towards 1.4458, and that was the cheap price to buy after breakout but still a good trade overall, I close exactly around 1.4585 and selling bids were found there till found support at 1.4585 again,But I was happy that I pull up nice ride.

Trading terms Buy Low and Sell High

Most heard terms for a Forex Trader, that if you can't sell high and buy low you can't trade Forex successfully and that is where who concept of success and failure of a Forex trader lies, hence though If you learning strategy where You buy and sell breakouts then you must have done some research and read views of successful Forex traders that Where does that true success of Forex Trader Lies.

Buy low and sell high look like Counter trade strategy and It all depends on timing and consistency and If you trade timing is not right then You miss moves that had very strong potential, but If Your timing is right and you can read possible Correctional Bottom of a trend, or know the law of consumed supply and demand then these type of counter trend strategy really does have strongest follow through's as compare to normal Pinbar or Candlesticks Patterns.

What really is buy low and sell high is ?

This whole concept work like a plan as more novice traders look to buy breakouts and they love to do so So whole concept work around strong supply and strong demand where follow through is strong enough and We have rejection approaching the previous supply and demand area, And of-course the dialenma of what market works or being working to catch stops before big moves.

Forex Traders don't bother to learn Forex Techniques

Is it really that easy to learn Forex trading? may be not but Not hard either- as all you need to know is to make full use of resources what You have and best use of those resource in the best possible way and there should not be no compromise

One thing that We all should know and try to implement that we all have same resources which have been used over decades and will be there for the times to come and Nobody is born trader or nobody can have extra skills to overcome his failure in fields and that is the beauty of Forex Trading which can suit the worst and fail for the best or rest.
Forex is all about Mindset but sometimes it is too hard to control because of wrong steps taken in wrong ways and nobody grooms you the way one should be. Believe me it has even happen to me as well, but Most don't succeed because it is down to persons approaching Forex Trading but Not for success as the opportunity is there for all but they don't approach or get guidance as they should be.

Trading success is a combination of the right mindset and the right knowledge.

Most traders learn the wrong information or are lazy and expect some guru to give them success and its no surprise they lose - no one else can help you win. Wining in trading comes from within and you need to take charge of your own destiny. Most of the systems and e-books sold on the net are not from traders at all but from marketing companies who never traded in their lives! They make their money making claims that have no substantiation and the gullible novice traders fall for it.

Comex Gold decline at higher price

I have taken an example of my Gold trade where I thought we got the best price to sell during thin trading amid lack of global events and pairs looking or direction and riskier assets like Gold still accumulating supply and found a higher price to fail and hence trade was appropriate and timing of the trade was excellent even on last trading session of the week where we can expecting winding up of some positions.
Sometime it do tend to surprise me how gold give such beautiful swings to buy Low and sell higher and Friday US session attempt above the choppy trading was the best price offer to sell at higher prices and follow through was quite strong, so no wonder If you know how to get best prices there to sell high, one can really enjoy trading Gold in any given circumstances.

Why You can't make money with Forex

Its quite harsh at times, when someone come across the research and found that Forex Investment is one of the successful way to earn higher returns and You just need to learn few techniques and use those techniques in high leverage markets to gain and make profit with couple of big profitable trades and then relax for a bit.
Its really seems like dream, when you heard such things when you first approach Forex and in excitement take few trades and you get welcomed in the "World of Reality What Forex Market is all about", and really , you don't even loose first few trades but morale is smashed and panic start showing on your face as you always thought about recovery and then walk away and then It becomes habit to take high leverage trades and routine loosing streak follow afterwards.

Making Profit in Forex Market Requires Patience

Trade Diary For the Week of April 18,2016

* One of the greatest thing that can happen to a trader is sideways market which can give trade time to prepare and adjust accordingly.

High probability trade probabilities

What we should focus on the high probable moves and by that I means to say probability in setups which are high profile setups or but trends emerging only due to news should be avoided, Whereas to identify this type of moves what we should focused on is that whether the reason of such moves is only due to news or a single factor that influence the currency for long run.

Moves are tend to collapse if there is no strong market maker is interested or look to pause after every break an that is why We should always look for Initiative followed by liquidation break, by means that strong moves after range breakouts specially due to just news.

*

Short term spikes can be reason of News release which can create risk but due to lack of approach or follow through market usually pause after the move but these type of strong release can destroy any trend or create short term reversals but You can never identify the reason and Smart money approach after that Currency Move.

Forex Price Action Success and Failure depends on few factors which have been described in details in this blog and several time, but advantage of moving the market at will can never be ruled out but lining up such moves can be spotted and that is what supply and demand has edge over other failure price Action Candlesticks and Trendline setups

Watchout when such breakouts happens in the market only due news and they are do tend to change direction quickly if the news is not digested for too long or lackluster approach and that is why I pick the currency pair which don't have too much influence of what is happening with currency pairs on global factors and hence strong move was expected and that is what I or We all as Forex traders need to do.

Why Trendline and Price Action traders Fail

As it is cleared from the title, I am hereby want to clear few points and question of concern which I earlier answer in mails but it is not possible to reply all of them and pinpoint every topic of candlestick patterns and their real connection with price action.

As we always hear from experience traders that Price Action is the best technique we use in strong trends and just about reaction to EMA,Support or resistance or even other indicators reacting at such levels. Does these type of patterns really going to make you some money in the long term even If you spend years to understand and practice it, but then what about the risk because no matter how your practice how you achieve success on virtual deposits.

Things does never go as we first anticipate or progress as expected because we fall in self-destructive preposition and keep working on something which are always respected to react the same as it does earlier.

*** Trading Price Action With Support and Resistance
Is not that sounds crazy that You trade Price Action and trade historical levels and expected candles to react at support or resistance the same way as it has done in the past or doing since past few decades. This is in itself asking too many questions for yourself.

***Why Price Action trading with historical levels
All the answers will be responded one by one with time as Trading blind setups of price action where chance of failures are more than the chance of winning became our habit and premium tool to predict the future price of assets,which looks quite impossible.

*** Trendline Role In Predicting Future Price of any asset

Chart above shows the only role of Trendline is to gather enough order with every test and small rallies after test is the process of ongoing bulk orders against the recent spike and getting best and real value of the price when asset was bought at the first test of Trendline.

Benefit of building Portfolio of every Trading Strategy

Some traders keep doing and showing same reaction with time and look to adapt to the situation and for some instance they succeed sometimes and manage to catch few moves but You need to Proper portfolio on what type of trades you took and what is the average profit of such system with stop and target as that always help you look for potential reward when such mechanical system is the primary tool for predicting price action

Bottom line is without understanding the complete picture and context, You must have few other powerful tools like potential risk reward and money management helps you with using mechanical system but It need complete and years of practice to perfect .

It always has been a professional approach towards your trading and lining particular pairs only that You think can offer any pullbacks but you should not wait untill it completely reverse and you left with nothing but a huge loss because of momentum carrying and sentiment changes.

Role of Crucial Support and resistance when Price Visit them again

I am not denying the fact that every support or resistance fails, but how many of them would hold nobody know but when and why the should hold is a question of complete attention and knowledge needed to read those moves. Everything should be in-line and crystal clear and should be known in advance and then only you can lower the risk and earn maximum profit potential when You look for resistance or supply is far enough to offer some 3x or even 5x reward on particular trade, where a whole candle can be an earlier attempt to look for strong move in the opposite direction before continuing or resuming the earlier attempt.

Price is all about price recent history approach and decision

Hi, Readers

It has been quite a while since new updates because I had a very busy schedule and today I have decided to update everyone once again about what is price history in real words, and what approach one should use when it is tested in strong moves and what is the reaction and that whole price action unfolds around these scenarios.

Basic of balance and Imbalance

Usually, Price moves in a structure and does not move randomly in one direction and that is why we usually see pause after a strong move and whole buying and selling moves around this pause and if there are not enough buyers or sellers price won't drop or rally and In order to price to move or rally there should be more one type of order (buying or selling) and it that point a base is confirmed and a decision that price is either too cheap of expensive has been made. When price moves away from base there is obvious unfilled orders which remain unfilled so when price returns to the base in future we can expect remaining orders to be filled causing a reacting in price and that is what supply and demand is all about history, approach and decision.

When Supply/Demand breaks

When a level is tested many times during a strong move, Supply and demand levels finally break. This can be done due to once remaining orders being filled and those unfilled orders got consumed or there could be price looking to reverse when significant amount of orders in opposite direction filled which cause breaking of level.

Broken supply/demand level holds some significance. Where once sell orders earlier now became orders and they exist, with the referred as demand levels. This mean upon return to those broken level, we could see a reaction in price, these levels are often referred to as "Swap" levels and this is termed as supply and demand and no one know whether there is supply or demand until we see approach and reaction while price tests those levels.

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Strong bullish momentum breakouts in S&P l S&P Technical analysis

Hi, Readers,
For those who did not check my previous post where I mentioned that I am still bullish S&P for a move towards possibly 2105 area Can look at the post here again.
Also Watch
*** How to Trade bullish breakouts in Trading Chart with Example

Question here is what made me think that bullish momentum is here to stay and its the strongest of momentum we have seen from the low as I have mentioned in my previous posts and doing it here again so. While trading momentum there are still few points that we do need to consider.

* Has price maintain an imbalance when It got a break from the previous swing
* Does price immediate recover on the day of selling or even the when the next session resume.
* Does price spike and maintain another bullish momentum after passive selling or immediately after supply days.

How I trade Bullish Breakouts in Index and Currencies

In the above chart, We can clearly see that S&P breakout from a level and maintain sustain the breakout and spend neutral days around the rotation area which is the first thing that come to mind while spoting such activity that why price has been so passive after such breakout has happened.

*** What is law of consumed supply and demand in Forex Trades with very low risk.

Price has a supply day after price test the breakout and ended the day on lows and what happened when trading resume the next day, price immediately engulf that supply and measured move was seen to end the day.

After that activity we saw a break of highs with ease and the we witness a neutral day activity yesterday. While market was quite cautious prior to release of Non agricultural pay roll data today it test 2037 area which was protected earlier and also was S/R flip and rejection in S&P Future just prior to opening bell of US trading session would have been well timed trade that send the S&P to the new highs around 2072 area which is close to 2% move in a whole trading session.

I also posted few video on such breakouts and one of them you can watch below and I would advice to just wait for such strong bullish momentum to appear and then plan your trading with very low risk trading moves and specially when You are promised to get movement with high impact release like NFP and meeting minutes and risk can hit the market any moment after such release and we can see our potential targets in a session or two .