Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Best Trades Setups of the Ending Quarter 2014 and Warm Wishes

HI, Traders

First of all I would like to wish everybody "Happy New Year" . May this coming year become more profitable and give you success you ever dreamed off and fulfill all your dreams.

Coming back to education portion and I would like to remind you that earlier positions of eur/cad shorts and usd/chf longs are very profitable and I would like to close both the positions and would like to continue from the coming opening of another week.

I would also put some more efforts in explaining the best setups on the basis of Supply and demand of the ending quarter of 2014 with some exclusive examples.

I will keep this blog more interesting with some new and unique updates on the basis of some mechanical systems but filter them with usual supply and demand basics and try to keep my blog readers ahead of market whatever market they trade.

Trade well and trade safe in the Year 2015.

All my best greeting for you and Your Families.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

How to trade price action rejection Confirmation on higher timeframes

Price Action rejection levels Posting the setup currently spotted on Eur/cad, though i need a confirmation on weekly time frame but overall trend is down so daily time frame is good enough to enter that rejection off supply areas.

Take a look at the chart on Weekly and Daily Time frames which confirmed the trade.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

How to spot Behavior of Passive Sellers

Passive Sellers Behaviors In trading

Hi traders, I did not post much through out the month and the reason behind is there is no too much activity we have seen inspite of strong Volatile movements. All the Counter-trend moves in Euro has been faded out so many times and strong selling has been seen since last few days and that could be a clue of resuming the trend unless we see strong demand of monthly and weekly time frame I would like to short the rallies and that is been the way it is so far.

The motive behind this post is to let everybody know that Shifting to different time frames does help specially when you shift from Daily to weekly and Monthly time frames. As I have mentioned too many time that risk can never be calculated so trading higher time frames include large stops but that is the way trader has to sort out noise of shorter time frames and when there is lot of movement up and down stops can be hit more often than not.

Clue of Passive sellers

In the above mentioned chart we have seen that in case of strong trends there are passive areas where buyers have given away control to sellers but they never went on to dominate the process, as buyers step in continuously and buy with even more force and continuous selling was a part of passive behavior when it first test the demand area with strong rejection and then strong bullish bar as confirmation of continuation and price has never stopped after that and though we had to use larger stop as we are trading daily trend but overall all the requirements are fulfilled for trend to give us clue of continuing the trend.

to be continued..........

Thursday, December 04, 2014

Do we see continuation after Correction In gbp/cad

Continuation in gbp/cad after end of correction

Those who continuously follow the blog posts must have known the fact that I love trading supply demand imbalance and recent decline in Crude oil really push all the Canadian dollar Pairs to reach Multi Year high but recent sell-off in Sterlingpush back the gbp/cad towards correction. But recent rally from lows give us a little clue that correction might have ended and trend is about to continue, But we need strong confirmation on daily as well as weekly charts.

Recent rally from Lows is very strong and could be a part of correction as well but price has maintain some levels and today on hourly we have some strong moves of that demand level and I will surely cover that chart during weekend.

Let's Start from Daily And Weekly Chart.

Demand levels Seen on Daily and Weekly Chart



I have mentioned two charts in a same file and both of them are completely telling us about the Demand levels, On the left we have weekly chart where we have seen few week earlier we have a big gap on weekly followed by Piercing Line Candlestick pattern though that rally lack Momentum an then on the right we have daily chart and pattern remains the same.

I will update the chart again after weekend to sum up the activity during the week on weekly and daily Charts.

Wednesday, December 03, 2014

Paradigm Shift l Value Higher Again SD basics

Value shift Higher again Supply and Demand Basics

Hi traders !
Here I am again putting lot of emphasis on Price and Value Distribution, Where I have again seen some momentum shift after Rangebound sessions extended i.e Usd/chf. Lot of time traders would think that price breakouts out of range in slow momentum trading is false and again look to short at Price extremes.

But Issue With Novice traders remain the same as they are not willing to accept what they see and Look to react looking historical support and resistance and Counter-trend moves.

But true fact of trading is Price is in strong trend and got rejected several times when it lean away from higher prices, But recent momentum look strong and Instead of remain in rangebound market conditions price has shift gears and approaching the multi-year high.

Price Action Pattern Explains


Chart above explained the Value of price and time and when it got rejected several times it does not take too much time to shift the value much higher and go through extremes which react as support or resistance. That's the truth of trading which often tells us the fact that every support and resistance has to broken some day or another and Its upto trader to react to those areas or just leave it to fade those areas as not all the areas of price has significant importance to market.

Does Trading supply and Demand still abstract You

Supply and Demand Still abstract you

If you like to know what is happening behind the scenes the the key is to develop a unique trading method. Don't look at candles or any other fibos on your screen as just red and green pictures and patterns as they are the expression of supply and demand.
Understanding true concepts will make all the difference in your Forex trading career. It will give you the ability to trade based on what the market is expressing through Price action. This resource can be useful to shift through the mountain of news and information that is produced every day and trade what you really see on the charts.

What Really Price Action Is

"What is Price Action?" is a question frequently asked by aspiring traders. This Post attempts to explain that there are no secrets when it comes to exploring the foot print of exchange rates across a chart. Nevertheless price action is more than just swing highs and swing lows. Rest assured this Post will not leave you in the dark and conclude some ever changing decisions that You need to make In you Forex Trading Techniques.

It’s easy to brush support and resistance analysis off as not important. Although obvious, this concept is rather abstract and requires some practice to be effectively used. Understanding a concept from a theoretical point of view is not synonymous with having integrated it into the practice. This section breaks down the dynamics of price action, and with the help of lots of charts, you will thoroughly understand this concept and learn how to trade with it. This new knowledge will make you see the charts with a new sense of objectivity and trade in a much more relaxed and proactive manner.

To be continued......

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Role of Candlesticks In Overall Trend Prediction

Candlesticks Patterns and Price Action In Forex Hi Traders,

Its being a busy week overall as We got some real setbacks for Euro Bulls, FOMC Tone was more of the same But ECB President Draghi really seems worried and drag Euro down once again, But thats not important Because I always back my Charts to see overall position of Strong holders who are most likely to drive the price.


Roll of Candlesticks in Overall Trend of Eur/usd chart


It was clear from the example above that most of the time in broader trend we have ranges and direction is not clear but overall bearish trend is good enough to pick entries from smaller time frames. Chart above is hourly chart and we have some ranges since last couple of days and price maintain a support where retail traders look to enter few times and scalp the market for few pips, but those who use careless approach in "Forex Market", then he or she has to pay at some time sooner or later and that was one of those days where strong money dominate and Euro Crash close to 1.10% decline which has not happened since quite a while.


Was strong holders were Driving the price up


Example above truly demonstrates the logic of Currency trading where we can say that IF that breakout to the upside was not result of Panic then why market liquidate immediately and although market react immediately next day but that has to be a part of some event or price usually gravitates to the high but breach of high after few attempts was not possible and hence market needs sometime to react and that reaction come prior to release of a Crucial event and all we need was to wait for breakouts and use logic if that was a pullback entry offered at the top of the range.
Rule of the thumb is never buy at the upside breakout and never sell at the downside breakout but that does not clear the fact that you always look to pick tops and bottoms but overall logic has something to do here where price made few attempts earlier to breach the top and was in sideways market and Overall picture was bearish.

Take a look at Usd/chf Chart which is Negatively Correlated With Euro


Here I have posted a chart of usd/chf which is negatively correlated and that chart I post on "Friday" as well, where I mention Value Migrates immediately and there was no stopping afterwards and If you watch at the bottom that if price was reversing then why it did not move exotically against the overall trend, which is in itself a great clue that market don't want to move away from higher prices and consolidate after every sell off and suddenly we see some buying interest and market try to breakout with early sign of buying which is exactly opposite of the charts I posted above of Eurodollar.

You still think Candlesticks plays any role in predicting the trend.

I am not denying the fact that candlesticks are important and they represents the activity of traders but If you do want to utilize it then use it with the overall picture and Use it on higher time frames where it truly signifies the overall picture and who remain in control for a particular week or day.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Concept of Advertising Mechanism

Strong trend Rejections In Currencies

I hereby make this post to let everybody know How price use to trap traders with Spikes that fadeout and When ever price in strong trends fade away It use to get Rejected by Market and Lower prices are not accepted in any case.
Price Concept is all about "Advertising Mechanism", And When we really want to trade good throughout then we must understand the simple logic and If spike got fade out quickly, we should immediately leave the market and think of better price if there is any pullback offered after spike.
The chart I posted here of Usd/chf in which we have seen that price in very strong trend recently on H4 and Daily chart and On H1 chart which I think is the best way for swing as well as Intraday Traders to set the lowest stops possible, got rejected so many times from the low and When you watch the price closely then You will see that at every low Price founds strong buyers and at this time I will look to see the follow-through and would like to see price try to fade out the Price Action again and Traders got trapped by this behavior and try cover and We will see price got some new buyers and test the new high or even make a new high.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

How to trade Ranges with Momentum Shift

How to trade Ranges IN trading

Momentum Shift in Australian dollar Once Again



I have explained so many times on blog that I always focus on strong trends pullbacks specially when few spikes have been faded and don't have any follow-through. I have created a post On "How to trade Ranges With Shift in Momentum".

In the above Chart I have noticed that price of Australian Dollar is in strong trend followed by Few ranges and then spikes up and down and When most of the time we see this type of behavior in strong Downtrend then Most of the time market hesitates to buy in the "Weak" Market or When they are expecting a favor from banks too earlier than It is scheduled and When they don't get anything they expect price often pick up after breakouts and then after attempt failed it went in range and then again Breakouts often spike and get out of the range to put stops and that is why I have created such posts where we can find out what is happening and what to expect in such crucial time.
I would watching a failure at this area of range for few sessions and then If we again see shift in Momentum, then I would short and advice everybody here to remain in short positions ahead of 0.8675.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Forex Price Action l Value migration supply and demand

Gbp/jpy Rise to Multi-year high after Minor correction

Gbp/jpy Rise to Multi-year high after Minor correction

Gbp/jpy Value Migration



As I always mentioned in my blog, Our primary focus should be on strong trends and we should always look for value Migration and Today we have seen such behavior and I would expect price to make a new Multi-year high in the pair Gbp/jpy

When we see strong trend followed by correction then We should always look for pullback only when price has not managed to liquidate too much and when we see spikes in such behavior and pause in trend, then we should always look for Value to migrate higher soon.

Value Migration should be a quick spike and there should not any hesitation in the market and value should keep rising with price.
Idea should always be to remain conscious and wait for such opportunities and keep buying on the day on any pullback as "Strong Money" Will keep buying and keep moving the price higher because it is natural in such strong trends and I have seen strong movement after "Value Migrates" followed by strong demand in Currency Pair.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Candlesticks Patterns Matching the Context

Candlesticks patterns Failures Offer continuations

Hi, traders.

In this post I’ve decided to emphasis more on Patterns and Overall context, that I use in my own trading, and that may be useful for you as well. In other words, what do we do step by step when we come to the market with the intention to find a good trade location?

We go top-down, from analysis of bigger time-frames to lower time-frames and finally, tick-by-tick action. Of course, our thinking in calm environment, when we do our homework, is different from thinking when we are acting at the «heat of the moment». But prepared trader has more odds of making good decision rather than unprepared one. The only group of traders that can make absolutely no preparation, are pure scalpers. But now there really a few pure successful scalpers in the world – this trading style has become very tough with the popularity of mechanical trading, HFT algorithms.

But what about if we spot Institutional Activity And we find candles that helps us spotting where stops are placed and we get the demand level protected when Price hit that particular area, specially when candles already has trapped traders.

It is very hard to find such setups but failures are in itself a strong clue of what strong buyers or sellers might be eyeing in such scenarios.

Australian Dollar Trade Update

Trade, I took on Friday of Australian dollar is a short example when you need to react when such scenario happen when we have already seen a demand and Price test the area and even strong buyers enter the market.

First of all, we saw a candlesticks trap a failure attempt by sellers when new high is made and then we see "Three Inside Up" Pattern which tells us that strong buyers are still there in the market.

But Often this type of patterns don't succeed but if you see price was accumulating and every down move found buyers few times and then finally when price test the area with another bearish pattern, Demand was stronger than earlier and may continue when market open or even better price would be offer to buy if price test the area again

Friday, November 14, 2014

Patterns spotted in Australian dollar l Intaday Price Action

Buying seeing at low levels

As I have mentioned in my previous post that Forex Trading is all about consciousness and timing and when You don't opt of any Forex Signals site and believe in yourself then such entry will come in routine.

Basic concept of "Market Profile" is to facilitate trading and they will do it with buying at downside moves and when You see such behavior in already "Bullish" trend, then you just need consciousness and timing and that is what "Currency or Stock Trading", is all about.

Are they really buying at low levels

If you closely watch the above mentioned chart then you will see market has breakout from a level and maintained a level above and whenever you see any type of "selling", then buying at low levels again push the price above and last buying was some serious attempt after false breakout of the range to the downside.

Trading is not all about seeing the price to move higher or lower in coming week, month or quarter, trading is about opportunities offered on short or long term and versatile traders know every type of market and they willing to accept what is being offered.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Hourly scalping startegy

How to scalp using hourly chart

I will update the blog with the charts that can be used to Scalp, Using hourly chart and will mention guidelines that are necessary to be taken in mind while using that Strategy accurately.

I have lost access to my server of my broker and that is why I am using online resources to get an idea how we can use hourly chart to scalp and make a living out of "Curreny Trading".

Saturday, November 08, 2014

How to spot reversal in strong trends

Currency Trading Reversals IN Euro Crosses

This post title might look weird to some traders, But Is there anything that can helps us found reversals in Strong bullish Momentum Pairs. Answer is most of the time It does not work and Its not easy as We always being taught that trend is you friend and We should often look for pullback entries in such strong trends.

But what has gone us should come down in any way whether it is long term correction or complete Reversal

Let's take an example

Eur/cad reversal after First Attempt Failed

Chart mentioned here is Eur/cad chart and pair was in strong trend untill first attempt after low fades out and It completely trap traders with a range Breakout with Strong Bullish, at the top of the range. But we does need a clearer view that whether it is reversal, because most of the time price does take time to continue, But here in this chart things are totally different, as price does reverse slowly after this first attempt to continue and the second mentioned candle which test the top of the range and reverse totally. And On daily time frames it does take huge stops to catch a reversal.

But If you count the low of first attempt to reverse the price where low is 1.4257 which is exactly 800 pips difference from the first attempt whose high is about 1.5257. What more interesting is the fact that the second strong attempt from low failed at 1.4257 and that is where current daily supply is lying. Rest of the things have been thoroughly explained on the chart and I would really be more than happy to clear each and every point that is necessary to spot a reversal as I already have.

Forex Price Action Shift in Value

Price Action Reversals and Continuation

HI Traders !

Its been quite a while since I have updated the Education Section of Trading But then I did find any setup even though there was strong movement in Currency Market. As you know, I never rush in to my trade seeing strong up-down movements, As I always back up my strengths and fade-off any quick breakouts when odds don't favor.

Traders usually use Candlesticks to Improve their trading skills, But for me Its not candles, But it is Consciousness and timing that always keep you ahead of Market. As a trader, we need to develop such techniques that always keep you ahead and No Indicator or Oscillator help you in this process, Even though they are helpful when other factors do hint or clue of change in momentum or even when reversal is happening.

Traders should know where Value Shifts Immediately

Most of traders, who watch my blog in Routine, then they are aware of how I use value to see what is happening when market maintain a level and traders went against the strong money. In above mentioned chart Value shifts so many times during the past few days but better is to wait and watch as value breaks out from here again to the upside and trend resume and We can easily get a pullback entry

Thursday, November 06, 2014

Euro reversal Was On the cards

Euro was all set to reverse

When small traders are very optimistic about possible growth, they bring a lot of fragile positions to the marketplace. Not surprisingly, market can liquidate (go down) very quickly if something happens. And market has liquidated after news release on Eur/cad – rapid movement to the downside was result of massive liquidation.

Forex Trading is "speculative business" And those who know that try to accept every little opportunity that comes their way, No matter whether it is short term or long term. But those who totally speculate on the basis of "Big release", that really has long term impact on the price of a particular pair, them one might called it gambling.

I have different point of view of accessing chart, One is Overall trend, release and logic behind the movement, And I always back up my decisions and never try to rush before the release because Its not us who drives the price, Its strong money who have huge lots which come and hit the market one after one and final decision is always reserve by those movers.

We did saw large movement in the price of Euro crosses and the one that I picked up today is eur/cad, And market set the tone for that reversal as you have seen in the above mentioned chart that market creates a scenario that "Liquidation", was about to arrive at any time after strong reversal and bullish momentum was not gathering any force and finally after we see final pattern breakout, Market was ready to go berserk.

Monday, November 03, 2014

Habits that traders need to prevent

Habbits of buying selling

Hi traders! Successful trading is often not about unique trading system, it’s about doing certain things over and over again, or I would rather say – not doing them. Many beginner traders often do the same mistakes over and over again and if you would simply avoid what they do (or even do the opposite), you would get an edge on the market, Because this market is not about buying and selling in hurries or react according to market volatility.

I created my own TOP-3 list, you can add some more in commentaries to this post. I haven't uncluded money managent here, just chart patterns (market behavior) that traders fail to read properly (Because pattern do tend to trade with Historical Charts)

Selling «expensive» and buying «cheap»

Most popular terms used in the "trading" is «buying bottoms» and «selling tops». When price suddenly breaks out from some range (say, to the upside) and starts to move rapidly, most traders will sell against this rally. That’s an instinct as Indicators told you (As Most of them react after trend is matured or trend is strong). If we’ve seen before Low volatility and absence of significant price Behavior to whatever side, we tend to deny breakout, we treat to new prices as «unfair» and rush to open a trade. Why in this case most traders are in hurry? They thing that current price action won’t long last and price will quickly drop back to the previous trading range.

Let's take a look at Example

It has rallied heavily, and believe me – there were many traders caught in short positions. Price has finally moved back to day opening, but I’m not sure that any short-sellers could benefit from that movement. You can’t enter short position (or long position, any position) if you don’t know your risk, if you are unable to calculate or estimate it. You can, of course, but it won’t be low risk trade, your risk will not be defined (don’t tell me that you know your risk because you have your stop-loss)

So, in most cases shorting against such rally can be only reasonable when market is overbought and ready to liquidate to the downside. Such situations are pretty rare and this topic goes beyond our post.

To avoid catching tops and bottoms, I recommend to switch between timeframes from time to time. What is cheap for one timeframe trader, may be expensive for other timeframe trader.

Friday, October 31, 2014

Updates on the trades during the week

Eur/jpy and Usd/Chf Trades of the week

I want to remind that I have posted two updates in the week and both went exactly what I thought and eur/jpy went from 136.20 to 140.70 (at the time of update, And usd/chf recent trade from 0.9460 is still going strong and I expect after minor correction price will clear the new yearly high which is the only obstacle in its way and I have moved my stops from 0.9500 to 0.9575.

Idea was to go long at the breakout and Intermediate false breakout while prior trend was still strongly bullish(see chart above for better understanding i.e Usd/chf), And momentum was strong and the only resistance price was facing the yearly high and It has once again hold for minor correction and As of Month end, we can expect that the momentum to loose some space and Once things settle and big week ahead in which the focus turn once again on ECB meeting, NFP Payrolls and few other high Impact release, So expect big swing to carry on the momentum through.

If you Like My posts, Then watch my other Recommendations

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Usd/chf update

Intraday updates of type of breaks

As I mentioned in my earlier post, that Breaks often tells us which way price will go and If you have such activity and then it became easy to define why price has been moving so strongly in one direction.

If you closely watch the chart then you find that after strong downside activity, price accumulate for days, and then we had some strong breaks both Initiative and Liquidation , Then we saw before the FOMC Rate statement,We saw an Responsive break on previous day and that type of breaks often trap traders, when they look to sell the rally and just before the release we saw more selling activity, and then we saw immediate strong candles coming out false Intermediate breakout.

Scanning Activity in Usd/chf

I just watch the chart closely as I post in my previous post, As We have seen and the activity is the same as told and that is why I need to prefer to wait and watch before I enter and exit and couple of good entries in a week matching such activity is good for me and I always try my best to post all what I see in the chart.

Type of Breaks In currency Trading

Breakouts in trading

I have explained in my earlier posts that I would try to cover most of the aspects in trading and Which can help us in determining the various Institution activity and when we see strong breakouts then we should see the background whether there is any entry to be offered by market makers, And Breaksoften give us clue which way price would go after such strong momentum.

Initiative,Liquidation and Responsive Breaks.

If You see such strong Initiative Breakouts which are followed by ranges at the bottom then this is know as Initiative Break, And when such breaks followed by immediate sell-off, then it give us clue that this market is driven by fear or some news release and Liquidation was a part of that release. But If you found the daily range and during the final hours of day close we saw strong breaks to the range to the upside or downside, Then It is know as Responsive Break

Most of the times when we see such activity, the after scanning all the activity we see momentum comes again and drives the price and momentum came again from lows to the upside and that momentum is strong then we should feel confident that earlier "Responsive Break", was a trap and price will be driven strongly to the upside as market as "Accumulated", whatever supply it holds and then value again shifts to the upside and price is drive more strongly.

For more help please check this update of usd chf chart

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Update of Post Eurjpy : Value Migration

Corrections and Continuations

For those who did not check my earlier post How Value migrates, Then take a look at the post I made two days ago of Eur/jpy

Simple technique when value migrates it really won't lean around the areas for too long and we did need strong Initiative Break and strong candle off from the area I marked was the one we needed.

When Price reverse in strong trends then it does take time to consolidate and accumulate the supply but not in this case and we have several Intermediate breakouts and reversal from those lows were strong and final breakout after Value Migration was strong as rally to the downside lack momentum and we just need a strong Rotation center violation candle that did the trick in this case.

Updated Chart of eur/jpy

In above mentioned chart, I have clarify How Value migrates and that is how we need patience to trade the trend reversals but we should not be in hurry to trade only candles patterns breakouts as we should give time to breakout to see whether or not the part breakout has follow through.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Tips For Becoming A Better Stock Trader

How to become a better stock trader

All the advice here, from the simplest tip to the most complicated, has been written with you in mind. Our goal is to help you make the most profit possible, with the least amount of risk. All of these tips should assist you in building a strong strategy, which will do just that.

Stock market investments should be kept simple. Reduce your risk by keeping all investment activities, including examining data points, predicting and trading, extremely simple.

Do not look at investing in the stock market as a hobby. It is something that has a lot of risk involved and it should be taken very seriously. If you do not have enough time, effort and patience to take it seriously, then you should not get yourself involved with it.

One fund to consider when investing in the stock market is an index fund. Index funds simply track a segment of the market, most popularly the S&P 500. It takes very little effort and it guarantees that you, at least, pace the market at large. Studies show that actively managed funds largely underperformed index funds. It is hard to beat the market.

Diversification is the main key to investing wisely in the stock market. Having many different types of investment can help you to reduce your risk of failure for having just one type of investment. Having just that one type could have a catastrophic effect on the value of your entire portfolio.

When it comes to purchasing shares, there are two distinct types to choose from: preferred shares and common shares. There is a greater risk factor of losing money with investing in common shares if the company you own shares in goes out of business. The reason for this is that bond holders, creditors and those who own preferred stocks will be first in line to regain some of their money from a company that stops functioning since they have a higher ranking than a common shareholder.

Hopefully, you've understood everything written here and can assimilate these tips into your current investing strategy. Whether you're just starting out or just want to do better, these tips should enhance your current ideas and lead you down the road to success. Whatever your goals are, continue to reach for the stars.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Correction In Eur/jpy Might have ended earlier than Expected

Corrections and Continuations

I watched the activity in Eur/jpy chart trade and watching that Intraday rally from the Bottom is very weak and Price once again holding higher prices strongly and I would like to see a test of 136.30 area again and then I would expected bigger rally would be on the cards once again on and Intraday Bulls will come In the market once again move the price higher.

We can once again see Value Migration to the upside, But depends a lot on that Price maintain the "Imbalance" in the market, and don't fall sharply and If it does we can see much more consolidation before next move higher or lower.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Candlesticks Patterns Continuation And Reversals

Intraday trading with Candlesticks

Candlesticks Trading

I was busy during the weak but I saw an opportunity to explain the Role of simple "Candlesticks patterns", and doing it by posting an example. In the above chart we seen that price has been in range and try to rise off demand areas and all the attempts are either faded out or either don't had any follow-through.

When we trade such scenarios we need to see overall relation of candlesticks with the context, As seen in the chart price has been bullish on the pattern breakout and then next candle almost completely engulf the prior breakout candle and opportunity was offered.

I would try to cover most of candlesticks patterns which offer continuation or reversals in the next post of my blog and other trading segments and aspects as well.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Price Action Without Candles

Price Action and its types

Hi traders! I am bit busy these days but still I always try to give my best to cover most aspects of trading and its style and During next week I will try and cover several aspects of trading as mentioned below.

*Momentum Trading

* No supply Imabalance

*Candlesticks Pattern traps.

*Context reading overall picture

*Trend confirmation after correctional bottom.

*Price Action in Balance Market conditions.

*Overbought and Oversold Market conditions.

*Roll Of Indicators.

*Breakouts and its types

I will try and cover each and every style with examples so next week its the best way to watch price action techniques which is really helpful in determining the versatility of a trader, and helpful aspects of trading.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Intraday scalping Opportunitiy

Intraday Scalping techniques

I try to make my blog posts as easy to understand as for me trading is more art than science and I never try to complicate things and If you have continously watch the updates, then It should have helped you enhance you trading knowledge and develop a lot of skills.

Scalping Need consciousness and easiest way around


When we saw strong trends tries to reverse and Had several attempts to back off from supply area and again tries to build momentum third time, then it is know as triple Initiative break and that type of breaks are clear form of "Imbalance", Where market went against the strong money and again driven back to areas where previous sell-off happened.

It is so important that we remain patience and look to go with trend unless we find this type of chart which tells you that infact a reversal is on the cards, And it happens with strong Initiative break which happens in this case of pound dollar chart.

Hints when Imabalnce is forming

Market clues when imbalance is forming

Example of usd/jpy : Strong Imbalance

I have try my best to keep this blog updated on every clue of Where "Strong Institutional buyers" are eyeing to step in the market and absorbed the whatever supply there is and "Imbalance" is first clue of any such activity happening.

Even though we are in strong trends market and we saw some candlesticks patterns then it is not necessary it offers continuation of trend as for me candles at adverse market conditions are traps (most of them), unless you saw strong "rotation center" Violation and prior trend is strong to sideways for number of days.

So, pattern is the lower level in decision making process, the higher level is understanding context. We can't really evaluate our decision if we always operate from lower level of this process. It is only possible to evaluate it when we try and understand what patterns is offering and what prior market conditions is and overall context is also very important.

Price Trend reversals In Rangebound Market conditions

Price Trend reversal after false breakout patterns

We have seen massive volatile market conditions after the release U.S retail sales data yesterday But It did not matter a lot to me because I hardly watch any news and watch charts and behavior of strong money and When you look for such strong moves it hardly had carry through and Eur/usd reversal off from supply area ends the day with giving away half the gains.

In order to look for massive opportunities in such big moves day one should be ready to look out for entries that suits you trading style otherwise there is no reason You should try to enter without any knowledge and stops get hit so many times after you enter.

Take a look at the nzd/jpy chart

Trader's assumptions don't pay and this is the truth of trading as You should be ready to step in when such strong movement days don't push the price of certain pairs and price end up with false breakouts as traders who left behind try to force the price higher but where strong money is eyeing to sell and get a better price, they will do it with ease and that is what "liquidation" is all about.

I would update the chart if I am stopped out after any exhaustion bar or any reversals as we should be ready if market finds demands again and price look to get momentum .

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Update Section Reversals

Price Action reversals with faded Breakouts

I will update the text later .

Currency Market Guide That Will Work For Anyone

Price Action reversals with faded Breakouts

Currency Market Guide That Will Work For Anyone

Money. It's what drives people to achieve more, reach higher and fight for what they deserve. It fuels our society and yet, causes immeasurable heartache if you don't have any. What does it take to get money? Investing is one avenue you can take to gain profits, but only if you know what it takes to do it right, so read on.

Keep in mind that there is a variety of stocks available. Compared to bonds, commodities, real estate and certificates of deposit, stocks might seem like a singular venture, but within the stock world there are many options. Common divisions within the stock market include specific sectors, growth patterns and sizes of companies. Stock investors routinely discuss things like small and large caps and growth versus value stocks. It is good to learn the terminology.

Companies with wildly popular goods or services that seemed to gain visibility overnight should normally be avoided. Instead, wait to see if the business does well in the long term, or it could easily lose its value as quickly as it found it. You might want to stick to reliable products instead of fads when choosing stocks.

When picking stocks, find a strategy you enjoy and stick with it. For instance, you may choose to ignore the market's behavior for the most part and focus only on a company's earnings potential. Once you settle on a personal set of rules, you can seek out prominent investors or financial gurus who share your philosophy, and you can learn from them.

Whatever your original investment portfolio size might be, and no matter how large your end goals are, you can do it. The insight you now have, after reading this article, hopefully, has given you the power to take your financial future into your own hands and mold it into everything that you have dreamed of. Now all you have to do is to just do it!

Friday, October 10, 2014

Tracking Demand and Supply l Oversold to Overbought

Rejection of supply level

As I have mentioned in my previous blog posts that We just indeed need one clue of rejection in ultra motion strong trends to trigger the entry with the trend, Even though the past rallies are strong enough, Which could be a part of "Exhaustion".

Currently I have tracked as such activity in Recent Intra day setup which is worth watching as I have seen Institutions or Strong Money selling it right from the top till pause and then selling activity resume.

That's a fact that at the time of writing this post price had already rallied 30 pips from 0.8860 to 0.8830 and that is how consciousness has a part to play in Intraday trading.

Thursday, October 09, 2014

Five Qualities Of Successful New Traders

Qualities of Successful Traders

"In your opinion what are the starting qualities needed to be a great trader?"Let's not complicate the process, because different kinds of trading require different skill levels. For example, many of the best hedge fund portfolio managers have superior analytical skills and abilities to detect setups that retail traders can't. Many of the best market makers have an uncanny speed of mental processing and level of concentration that enable them to stay on top of order flow throughout the day. This is why I emphasize, that matching one's style of trading to one's strengths--talents and skills--is an essential component of success.

If I had to identify qualities that distinguish "starting qualities" that are important across all traders, the following come to mind:

1) Capacity for Prudent Risk-Taking - Successful young traders are neither impulsive nor risk-averse. They are not afraid to go after markets aggressively , when they perceive opportunity;

2) Capacity for Rule Governance - "Successful" young traders have the self-control needed to follow rules of stress-battle, including rules of position sizing and risk management;

3) Capacity for Sustained Effort - Successful young traders can be identified by the productive time they spend on trading--research, testing systems, preparation, work on themselves,Consciousness--outside of market hours;

4) Capacity for Emotional Resilience - All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not be quick to lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustration,which gives them edge over emotional traders;

5) Capacity for Sound Reasoning - Successful young traders exhibit an ability to make sense of markets by synthesizing data and generating market and trading views. They display patience in collecting information and do not jump to conclusions based on superficial reasoning or limited data.

Finally, I would say that successful developing traders approach their work with a kind of humility. They don't know it all and they don't pretend to know it all. They absorb wisdom from mentors and markets, and they are quick to acknowledge when they're wrong, so that they can get out of bad positions and learn from their experience. Show me a stubborn young trader with a defensive ego, and I'll show you one who will fight his or her learning curve every step of the way, with predictably poor results.

If you want to identify potentially successful young traders, look at their trading journals and gauge the amount of time they spend behind the screen. The good ones will have detailed entries about markets and about themselves, with constructive ideas, goals, and feedback. The less successful traders will have sparse entries that display little effort or analysis, with no goals, no constructive direction. The good ones watch markets closely, even when not trading. The less successful ones find little reason to watch markets if they don't have a position.

Effort alone won't make a trader successful, but lack of it will almost certainly ensure failure.

.

Price Action Basics Educations purpose

Strong holders vs weak holders

Ok, now if we have distinguished weak holders from strong holders. And what we really have to do - we want to know, at least to assume what professional players are doing. By professional players I mean dealers or institutions that have to consistently deal with big volumes and give their clients at least average good fills. Institutional activity When we are talking about institutional activity, we are talking about strong holders. That guys have almost unlimited buying power at their disposal, but it doesn't mean that they want take money from you, they usually have large order from their clients. It not always means that they want to purchase from weak holder, squeeze them and hunt for their stops. They just want to accumulate position not squeezing price against themselves. First of all, if you look at this chart, how do think, where (on what prices) institutional player was buying (if he was buying at all here)?

 photo asdasdasd_zps7fd81119.jpg

Expected answer is that they were buying at lower level. But think about their volumes. They are big enough, and they simply would not have enough liquidity to build a position there. They usually have to accumulate - to buy several times, to absorb somebody's sell orders. Otherwise they will not have enough liquidity and make prices grow immediately So, their buying will be distributed within whole trading range:

 photo 123qwe_zpsa92ac228.jpg

And the first clue of institutional activity is acummulation on moving market (rising or falling market). They don't have enough order flow going down to absorb, so they have to squeeze prices a bit, but nevertheless they have good average price, not the worst of the period. It's a wave-like process. It ends with a breakout

 photo range_smarts_zps3eda1ab8.jpg

Friday, October 03, 2014

Forex Trading Strategies l Shift in Value in strong trends offer continu...

Forex Trading Strategies lHow to identify price trend reversals

Shift in Value in strong trends offer continuation

Trend continuation setups

I have stated in my earlier posts that it is always necessary to see what market is doing in strong trends and some strong points to note down that If there is still "shift in Value" on neutral days, means that there is still Imabalance there in the market and recent rally IN usd/cad point out the same scenarios

Shift in Value Or Demand

You can clearly see in the chart that market has offered continuation when paradigm shift to the low side again on a neutral day and Market traps enough traders to cover in the long entries or go short with the momentum and Price has again market up and even with strong force.

Although it is not easy to visualize such entries but it should be a part of your trading strategies when you try to trade basic supply and demand but there are few points that you need to cover when you decide to trade shift in Value.

* Market should be in strong trend already

* There should not be strong sell-off (strong sign if sell-off days ends up as Neutral day)

* First sign of shift In value should be there After primary breakout

* Price is usually Marked up again without testing the shift in Value

How to identify price trend reversals

How to trade reversals

Few days ago, I posted a chart of gbp/usd to clear the doubts when you have found the Mature trend and want to "Identify a reversal" in such trend amid strong liquidation which is often good clue in reversals.

First of all those who don't check my earlier post check it here

Real Time Updates How to identify Reversals Chart posted Gbp/usd

As I have stated in my earlier posts, Its easy to spot trend reversals but most of them don't really happened before we start anticipating that reversal is on the card. Difference between success and failure of such traders depends on the overall picture attempts made and also the breakouts that failed. In the above mentioned charts, We clearly can spot that there was too many False breakouts that happened and fall short of supply areas which finally was good enough to offer an excellent risk reward ration before price Creates a overbought condition.

Those who visit the blog updates, have idea what is real overbought market conditions created by Bunch of traders to trap traders both sides of the market rather than depending too heavily on oscillators.

Time to wind up the week for more updates.

In the mean time check what is Continuation patterns offered by Shift in Value.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Reversals after Mature Trend

Important points to cover in Mature Trends

What do I mean mature trend? It's a trend that already has some history, this trend will attract a lot of weak holders - uninformed players, who are willing to get in the position and to take a risk, but they have relatively close stops that will be located in the same location.

Big market players use this liquidity (orders from these weak holders) to build their positions. So, engulfing patter occurs in conditions prepared for falling.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Supply and Demand What is overbought and oversold Market conditions

Has rally in aud/cad is outcome of Overbought Market


Situation of overbought conditions

Situation of overbought market condition occurs when public accumulates extremely long inventory (even if smart money players are not too short). The same situation occurs when they hold extremely short inventory – we say that market is «oversold» in this case

Liquidation is the result of Overbought Market Conditions

.

Hi traders!

We hear it very often that market is «overbought» or «oversold». But is it really possible to understand this looking at the single price chart without knowing real open interest (we don’t have this information for Forex currency pairs)? Some traders try to use RSI or other oscillators (divergences as usual) to spot «overbought» or «oversold» market.

First, let’s define what overbought (oversold) market is.

We all know that for every buyer there has to be a seller to have transaction executed, otherwise there’s no trade. So, how in the world can we have something «overbought» or «oversold» - do we really assume that there can be more buyers than sellers?

Let’s distinguish market participants of 2 parts: Smart money (institutional players) and public. Smart money often have information about large orders, they have access not only to interbank liquidity, they also execute orders of big clients, so they know what big guys are going to do – they work on the behalf of those big guys. On the other hand, we have «public» - uninformed market participants that usually just react and don’t have access to real liquidity.

Does really «public» exist on Forex? After all, it’s interbank market with minimum position size of 1 million. By «public» I understand not really retail traders that operate with 100 USD accounts, not at all. By public I mean orders brought to the marketplace by large ECN networks like EBS, Currenex e t.c. Such marketplaces collect smaller positions from retail traders all over the world and hedge them in the interbank market

.

When small traders are very optimistic about possible growth, they bring a lot of fragile positions to the marketplace. Not surprisingly, market can liquidate (go down) very quickly if something happens.

And market has liquidated after news release on Aud/cad– rapid movement to the downside was result of massive liquidation:

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Intrady day strategies for trading forex on all the majors pairs

Breakouts and preparation for Breakouts

Importance of Elongated Candlesticks

Hi traders, Its been a week since I have updated the blog and In the meantime volatility has picked up and that is the reason I was busy in setups and I always look for my setups rather than forcefully look to sell and buy with the market behavior.

Example of Breakouts Or preparing for breakout

.

Example in the chart shows that when you trade momentum and prepare yourself for breakout And force yourself to trade suc such spikes in price looking to breakout rather than look for volatility spikes which requires huge stops to cover your positions

Interestingly, When you have such tendency in moving market behavior then look for such low risk probability trades and that is the best way that let you ride most of the earlier part of trend. But in some cases even though it offers a pullback and You have to cover quickly but still Intra-day profits would have already booked before such action take place

Idea, thought behind such price action or breakouts is that You need to trade logic in the trend and when price is In "Balance" State of behavior which often tells you the strength, and No strong sell-off has been shown and If there is any sell-off is to be part of neutral day "Liquidation Trap".

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Momentum trading

Importance of Elongated Candlesticks

I take some time to update the text, But in the meantime we have some more clues that market activity was balanced inside the bracket and market was ready to squeeze outside the bracket but soon afterwards we saw some selling and Again today after the test we see some aggressive traders participate again and mark the price higher even strongly than earlier.

Another classic example of Momentum trading

.

Role of Candlesticks and Trading Mistakes

Importance of Elongated Candlesticks

Volatility bias.

Many traders become to trade move actively after volatility breaks, in other words they tend to be more active after «trending» days – days with extended trading range. But if you analyze market statistics for at least last 5 years, you will see that more often market tend to consolidate within a body of the elongated candlestick (of course, I’m talking now about daily charts) for 2-3 days.

Role of candlesticks In Strong volitality breakouts

There is a very simple explanation for such market mechanics. Big market participants rarely come to the market and drive it to a new prices, instead they prefer to act as a market makers – to provide liquidity. In other words – they don’t chase running market, they try to accumulate position in consolidation before (most frequently) or after (more rarely) the breakout to make sure that their average fill will not be the worst.

On Forex market, days with extended volatility often don’t mean anything, it can be simply a «shakeout» or a single player stepping in the market without intention to continue pushing it to whatever side.

Solution: Don’t chase the market, find accurate trade location after market settles or when breakout is ready to occur, not after that.

I have posted an example of both charts in two different ways of looking at both of them as It will clear the thoughts

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Intraday updates Scalping techniques

Scalping in forex

How to use Scalping For Intraday trading

It is important that we chose Smart logic when we decide to trade Intraday for scalping and "Scalping techniques" does not means that we have to trade daily and make 10-20 trades for 50-60 pips which is totally asking too much or target more than your potential.

For me its Scalping been 5-6 setups a week should be good enough for whatever comes my way and Never try to overtrade and always try strong trend currency pairs to offer me pullbacks whether long or short and That is what happen on Last Friday with usd/chf setups I target for Intraday scalping.

Excellent example OF Scalping

In the above mention chart price was in strong trend and then we see extended range which is a strong sign of Imbalance and then we have strong spike and immediate selling was seen the following day but I eyed that as an opportunity because price ended the day on lows and value was shifted immediately to that lows and also that was the confluence of the prior spike and that is what we need to target while it is also low of Blue Rectangle I mark on the charts.

That sort of state is called balance and when market sentiment is balance and Nobody dominate, then there is strong that prior trend will continue and that is what happened after consolidation for a session price finally breakout and gives us good 60-70 pips profit on the day.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

How to choose swing trading or scalping

What is swing trading? How «swing trading» differs from «momentum trading»? Actually, there are many approaches to swing trading, but I will express my point of view on the subject.

Swing trading is trading on intervals more than 1-3 days, some traders may call it «long term» or «medium term», but in fact, good swing trade can last no more than 4-5 days. Swing trades are usually level-based trades. For example, if you trade momentum, you can capture short-term overbought or oversold condition of the market (imbalance) and trade-off scenario of inventory correction.

If you trade momentum, your trade will look like that:

 photo momentum_trade_zps0e13dfd5.jpg

You see, that typically you will buy high to sell higher. But in this case you act like a sniper, wait for perfect timing for your entry, then aggressively go with the market, capture profit and exit. Things are different with swing trading. For momentum trader it’s natural to exit pretty quickly (duration 3-4 hours for intraday trade) because his price is not relatively very good – momentum trader is unable to survive pullbacks, rotations and other activity of the market, before it reaches the target. That’s why momentum trader will tend to quickly reduce his risks, minimize stop losses or set them to breakeven. Swing trader expects to get good price while his timing may not be ideal. If you expect to get good price, market can revisit your entry several times, rotate above your entry (if you go long), go sideways, and only after 2-3 days of sideways action price can break out from a range in the direction of your position (or may not break out)

Typical swing trade looks like that:

 photo swingtrade_zpsee7b6312.jpg

I basically trade 2 types of swing trades – «rejection trades» and «hot spot trades»

How do they look like?

In this post I will talk about "rejection trades".

Briefly, rejection is a reversal. It’s that simple. But there’s one small nuance. Rejection level is not a «support» or «resistance» level. Actually, there are no support and resistance levels – there are only areas of support and resistance. And they are usually located where majority of traders don’t seek them.

Important principle:

Before ever considering fading correctional move, you should see signs of support/resistance before. Sun Tzu had said: «Every battle is won before it’s ever fought»

The same is in trading. Every reversal is made before it’s occurred. Weird, huh?

Reversal is just a paradigm shift in heads of market participants. Before reversal, market must have strong imbalance between demand and supply, otherwise no power can drive the market against existing trend (even correctional)

So, to decide whether to join a trend or not, you should see signs of big money buyer (seller). As you know, institutional buyer will tend to accumulate, to slowly build his position. More often than not those guys are not speculators in conventional way – they accumulate position by given price, then use purchased asset in business outside the market.

So, if you see that market tends to show you very well traded levels in the center of the day and poorly traded levels on the extremes of the day, it can be a sign of accumulation if this process goes long enough.

Look at the chart of AUDUSD – you have seen signs of big buyer accumulating long here – look how price is leaning to the area 0.9440. How do you think – why market shows strange consensus around this level?

 photo aussuue_zps98aa36e8.jpg

Also, you expect to see «neutral» or «normal» days as the process of accumulation goes on. Neutral day is day with very low tempo and aggressiveness – it closes near its open. Normal day is more aggressive day, yet it also closes near its open. These days also help you find accumulation areas on the chart

 photo profiles_zpsafe8433e.jpg

And there are other clues that I can’t describe here, because in this case post would become very massive. I call areas described above «real support areas». Why «real support»? Because those who join the market from any lines can’t really support the market – they are short term players and gamblers by their nature. Will gambler support any market? He is careless and he will exit first if something goes wrong.

Guess what I’m trying to tell you?

If you want to get good price and capture a reversal of correctional trend, you should seen signs of real support. Real support creates conditions for a reversal if market goes against big buyer (remember –to reverse the market, there should be supply/demand imbalance). Reversal itself occurs after paradigm shift, when it becomes clear for most short sellers that they were biased and go in the wrong direction.

Compare two situations. I specially applied market profile for those charts to show you the concept. On the first chart there are not enough real support clues - market goes back and forth in continuous search for information, on the second chart things are different – this chart is much more «managed» and probably driven by strong money buyer.

 photo REalsupport_zpsa6638896.jpg

So, not surprisingly, price reverses below offering several good opportunities for a swing trader:  photo myrealsupport_zps21d4eed0.jpg

Friday, September 12, 2014

Forex Trading Strategies l Beginners Price Action Based On Supply and De...

How to trade momentum and Find best trade locations

Best trade locations for best setups

While We prepare ourselves to chose what type of trader we are, We should prepare for Momentum trading Even for scalping or Swing trading. And when We decided We should use some strong points which cover the strong segments of "Momentum Trading".

Even though Imbalance is not present in the market, It still can continue its previous day activity, And we should be in search for this type of trade locations where Price has retraced of the prior move and Look for momentum to come again and continue moving in the prior trend before correction.

Example of Momentum trading

For next few days, As I have always done to cover the points which we need to be aware while we trade Momentum trading and above chart is the first example, But still if you trade Neutral days after breakout. You can still trade Momentum for continuation or reversals.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Forex Trading Strategies l Beginners Price Action Based On Supply and De...

How to spot Imbalance in strong trends

How to trade strong trends with Imabalance

As I have continuously mentioned in my previous posts that "Imbalance is what creates trends and balance create ranges", And When We have seen such strong trends like the one we have seen after the end of correctional trend in usd/jpy, We have to filter our entries.

In this chart I have clearly stated that "Neutral day" activity where we have seen such strong behavior after false breakout on neutral day and there was minor development area, which was left behind after momentum finally take place and we have to look for tight stops in such cases as price usually don't come back if We manage to find out continuation of the trend.

Example of the chart usd/jpy

Clearly I have identified the opportunity and spotted out trade location in such cases which is the important point that we have seen some ranges and then finally we have seen some momentum picking up and we have finally manage to collect some pips although my entry came earlier at 106.38, Because I use to spot out such activity earlier and specially when I only target strong trends and some policy moves which makes a good combination, although it is not easy but stops was not very far away from my entry and will cover quickly if risk again hit the market as it is the case driving riskier assets like aussie, kiwi and usd/jpy counters.

Popular Posts