Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Risk management and quality of trades depends on how you time your trade

Trading Top down Analysis

Trading is not only about entries  as it depends on how you manage your risk. There are several entries are always on offer but do we need to take or consider all of them even as to practice or check trades ?

Understanding price action is way beyond making consistent profit. You can analyze multi pairs at a time to make best use of the entries on offer but we must think of the risk we are taking on so called cherry trades. There is no doubt that big players, banks and institutions manipulate traders as they can push the price in any direction but as a retail trader we must accept the fact that our trading activity should be limited considering the fact play a waiting game.

-As far as my trading is concerned, I usually don't trade too often as I don't have to but if there is a reward of 15-20 times of the risk and reaction don't let me wait for weeks for choppiness then I always put the foot on the paddle. Higher time frames does help but if even they are looking direction then I don't bother to look at daily activity.

-Forex trading is somewhat different in a way that it can move in a week from downtrend to uptrend but as we know market trends 30% of the time and we have to take decision that when we enter market trends should resume or keep moving the way it was earlier.

Daily time frame is good area to watch as I told.in my previous post. Price action does require fuel to trend and there are some late entries when targets are reached and happens stop hunting before  another big players resume the trend and this type of activity is usually done within a month.

What is Price Action ? Multiple time frames Top Down Analysis

Trading Top down Analysis

 Its has been quite a dialema that what price action. Is it a self-emphasis trader's curse. Trading price action is something like analyzing top to middle level management and then the quality of the product itself telling the story.

Understanding top down analysis from reaction on timeframes 

Top to down analyzation is meant by looking at monthly chart to see who is in control and looking to weekly determines the strength of the recent moves and daily is very good for entry level and nothing below that I have ever traded nor recommended.

Daily time frames downtrend or uptrend is most of the times is temporary as 22 daily candles consists of one monthly candle and imagine a powerful uptrend or downtrend on daily finish as a dozi candle on monthly.

We make things complicated by day trading isn't we ? I hereby will help you understand the top to down trading analysis filtering the quality of trades that we must take.

As you see in the chart above,weekly trend is up. Several higher highs followed by fail to make a new low. Rejection at trendline tells us that price will probably look to pick up strength soon atleast on lower time frames.But still there has to be a reason to catch the reaction with entry which offers good reward. I still expect price to make a new high soon above 1.7600.

Lets look on lower time frame

Price reacted at support which is also the source of previous down move and it was also completely ignored in the upmove as we can expect weekly and monthly moves just use to ignore lower time frames orders and trading higher time frames use to wipe those whispaws from your trading. Take a look at the chart.

Friday, October 06, 2017

Decision & Price Action zones Understanding Institutional oder flow

Understanding price action zones to trade forex market is the most important thing. Price has to breach zones for pa to react as I mentioned in my last chart where I clearly stated that price can hold this area for further advance.

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

U.S employment data & price action opportunity with canadian dollar

Forex Price Action zone

We are approaching for october us employment data & perhaps the one to focus before next fed meet to raise the expectations of next fed rate hike. But I really don't put my focus on fundamentals as its always the charts which draw my attention. Recent choppiness has not provide any clear price action opportunity as price has been paused after big moves looking for market to respond and we can witness strong volatility when data will be released.

Price Action is looking reaction in Usd/cad cross.

I always look for recent trend strengths and see if there is cautious recovery is on proceed to look for opportunity to trade with the trend.  I have explore few charts ahead of the NFP reports and found usd/cad lovers looking for breach of important support of 1.2300 & then you can short on return it but it entirely depends on Pa how it approach the support but a classic trade opportunity is waiting to be traded.

Sunday, October 01, 2017

Institutional Traders Left shoulder price action -How to trade Head & Shoulders pattern

Forex head & shoulder patterns >

As I've already mentioned that most of the price action patterns failed because all of are probably based on fibo ratios, trendlines or head & shoulders breakout patterns & that is why they all are prone to fail most of time. Failed failures patterns are best to try out sometime if we follow strong Drawdown rules and don't carry loosing trades too far.

But As I said there are few rules to trade every pattern exist and well worth practising.  In this brent oil chart price spent lots of time inside boundries and coming out of strong breakout and then price consolidate abouve that & once we saw this breakout a pattern build and this is how we can see market never lets you trade pending orders above breakouts.

After market breaks out something was left on the table and that was taking out stops of  retail traders and those who trade breakouts once again had to covered but market demand or orders was just below the pattern where I mark red rectangle and once first test was completed we need to notice if price could desperate to recover & that is what happened and market build another one and second entry was offered at test of the previous holding resistance.

I would update the chart as market has reached the pa zone again for oil as this could another move up if it hold and if we see market give it away easily then we can see this breakout could be target for shorts.

Stay tuned for updates.

Price Action Analysis for Gold Futures & Crude Oil

Price Action Analysis for U.S dollar, Gold Future & Crude Oil.

Its has been quite a while since I've updated the blog but the situations are sometime quite messy. Been busy with the schedule and recent site launching price action courses and Forex signal services free of cost for complete year.


Coming back to the updates. I didnt trade for  last six months but now I've taken or eyeing few positions & looking for price to enter those zone. Recent move of gbp/jpy has been astonishing as we've witness a 700 pips move down & 1300 pips move from there in no time. I would have caught one down as I see a bullish trap and clearing out buy orders and then bang it goes on the day of Probably August UK employment data & keep following after the release of Non-farm payrolls.

It is not easy to pick up rhythm righy away and see whatz happening but those who've spend time in market got glimpses of things to come and thatz why I always look for big boys always have their eyes on Gold & Crude Oil. Rally of Brent oil also has been inspiring as well with a false pullback around 52.55 oil.


Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Trading Australian Employment data -Price Action suggesting to short

Price Action in Australian dollar is quite rangebound as it can be expected due to high impact release of Australian employment data.

What will be hit first 0.8000 or 0.7962 and I would look for breach of 0.7962 to short at return to 0.8000 with stops around 0.8030 and targeting 0.7860 but it all depends on how price will react as hit of 0.8030 first will cancel trade opportunity.

Will post the complete update and chart after the release.

Risk management and quality of trades depends on how you time your trade

Trading Top down Analysis Trading is not only about entries  as it depends on how you manage your risk. There are several entries are...